News

Judging by the preponderance of retail sales offers throughout November in my email inbox, the rise and rise of ‘Black Friday’ should completely randomise the precise timing of this year’s Christmas retail spending. Similarly for those who think about financial markets, the three percent rise in pan-European indices during the eleventh month of this year – particularly when mated with the very low levels of volatility seen across the prices of many asset classes during the month – appears to have also pulled forward the traditional ‘Santa rally’.

In the global investment strategy calendar there is only one period of time that can compare with the turn of the year in terms of importance… and that is the back to school period.

Despite the usual weather downers such as the tennis at Wimbledon or the start of the school holidays, July was a warm month pretty much anywhere you looked in the northern hemisphere. Global stock markets were hot too, led by the out-of-favour emerging markets and Continental Europe. Funny how all throughout June and July the aggregate investment flow data was profoundly negative for both regions…

Major macro factors affecting the economy and financial markets over the next six to twelve months include trade policy, interest rates, earnings growth, Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, and geopolitical uncertainty.

I thought I would use Billy Connolly’s witticism about his homeland to highlight the essential debate in financial markets at the moment. During the last month, the UK’s most-quoted stock market index – helped by a rising oil price boosting energy sector shares – reached an all-time high.

Major macro factors affecting the economy and financial markets over the next six to twelve months include interest rates, earnings growth, inflation, monetary policy, and global economic growth.

So how was February for you? For many it would have been a bit of a shock with the global indices in aggregate posting their first monthly loss since the autumn of 2016, which is a long time ago. The real question however is whether this heralds a new downward trend, whether this is just a new volatility reality or whether we should view this as a buying opportunity?

There is an old market expression that says ‘As goes January, so goes the year’. The historic data rationale for holding this view is decidedly mixed but global equity market investing adherents will be entering February feeling very excited. Simply put, January was a decidedly positive month for global equity investors, and it is easier to say which markets went down rather than quote the long list who had their best start to the year for a number of years.

Many years ago I was told that if I found myself uttering the phrase that ‘investment was easy’ I should sell all my outstanding positions and go and sit in a darkened room and have a think about it all. These words came back to me a few days ago when I came across some information about the investing habits of one of the UK’s true historic geniuses Sir Isaac Newton, the mathematician, astronomer, theologian, physicist… and almost bankrupt investor.

I pointed out in the most recent Investment Services Quarterly that over the past fifteen or twenty years October had a slightly rude reputation as a bad month for equity market investors. October 2017 will go down in the history books as not only being a positive month for almost all global investors, but additionally one which saw many well-regarded volatility measures continuing to bump along the bottom.